Poker Variance Calculator
Calculate expected variance and downswing potential for poker sessions
About this calculator
The Poker Variance Calculator helps players understand the natural fluctuations in their poker results by calculating expected variance and potential downswing scenarios. This tool is essential for proper bankroll management, as it shows how much your results can deviate from your expected win rate due to statistical variance. Understanding variance helps players distinguish between bad luck and poor play, preventing emotional decisions during inevitable downswings and ensuring long-term profitability in poker.
How to use
Enter your win rate (bb/100 hands), standard deviation, and number of hands played into the calculator. The tool will compute your expected variance and show potential downswing ranges. Use these results to assess whether your current results fall within normal variance expectations and adjust your bankroll accordingly.
Frequently asked questions
What is poker variance and why does it matter?
Poker variance measures how much your actual results can differ from your expected results due to luck and statistical fluctuations in the short term.
How do I find my standard deviation?
Track your results over thousands of hands using poker tracking software, or use typical values: 80-100 bb/100 for cash games, higher for tournaments.
What's considered a normal downswing?
Downswings of 20-40 buy-ins are common for winning players. Longer stretches without proper tracking data may indicate fundamental strategy issues rather than variance.